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Episode #71. Entrepreneurship in Times of Uncertainty: Navigating Policy Chaos, Uncertainty and the Market Process With Jeremy Vesta

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How should entrepreneurs act when uncertainty is everywhere—from volatile markets to chaotic policies and global instability?

In this episode of the Value Creators Podcast, Jeremy Vesta helps us explore the role of entrepreneurship in uncertain times, including those caused by the chaos of government intervention and policy chaos. Building on insights from Austrian economics, this conversation dives into how entrepreneurs manage uncertainty, make decisions when the future is unknowable, and why markets remain powerful discovery processes even in chaos.

Key insights include:

  • Why policy instability amplifies uncertainty and raises the cost of investment.

  • Entrepreneurs don’t try to eliminate uncertainty but act decisively in spite of it.

  • Why markets thrive as discovery mechanisms precisely because no one knows the outcome.

This episode is a guide for business leaders and entrepreneurs on finding clarity in uncertainty, acting with confidence, and creating value when the future can’t be predicted.

 

Resources:

 

➡️ Learn What They Didn’t Teach You In Business School: The Value Creators Online Business Course

 

Learn more about Curally

 

Connect with Jeremy Vesta on LinkedIn

 

Connect with Hunter Hastings on LinkedIn

 

Subscribe to The Value Creators on Substack

 

Knowledge Capsule

 

1. Uncertainty Is the Entrepreneur’s Environment

  • Entrepreneurs never experience certainty; the future is inherently unknowable.

  • Risk and uncertainty aren’t barriers—they are the conditions of entrepreneurship.

  • The role of the entrepreneur is to act despite incomplete information.

2. Policy Chaos Raises Costs

  • Unstable policies introduce uncertainty and create new barriers to action, making investments more costly.

  • Policy unpredictability forces entrepreneurs to hedge or slow down.

  • The result is often a lower rate of investment and slower growth.

3. Risk vs. Uncertainty

  • Risk is measurable; uncertainty is not.

  • Entrepreneurs thrive in uncertainty by experimenting and adapting.

  • The distinction is central to Austrian economics and economic decision-making.

4. Entrepreneurs Discover, They Don’t Predict

  • The future cannot be forecasted with precision.

  • Entrepreneurs test, explore, and learn through market feedback.

  • Discovery is ongoing, not a one-time prediction.

5. The Market as a Discovery Process

  • Markets work precisely because outcomes are not predetermined.

  • Entrepreneurs compete to discover new, valuable ways to serve customers.

  • Prices and consumer responses guide the process of discovery.

6. Action Is More Important than Analysis

  • Endless planning cannot eliminate uncertainty.

  • Progress comes from acting, testing, and iterating in real time.

  • Speed of action can be more valuable than perfect foresight.

7. Capital Allocation Requires Courage

  • Investors and entrepreneurs must commit resources despite uncertainty.

  • Capital is always deployed with uncertain outcomes — courage is part of entrepreneurship.

  • Failures are necessary feedback loops in resource allocation.

8. Policy Instability Creates Fragile Environments

  • Sudden regulatory changes undermine long-term planning.

  • Entrepreneurs must stay flexible to adapt to shifting frameworks.

  • Stability enables lower costs and more confident investment.

9. Uncertainty Cannot Be Removed

  • Attempts to engineer certainty (through models or policies) fail.

  • Uncertainty is fundamental and irreducible.

  • Resilience comes from embracing it, not denying it.

10. Decision-Making Is Contextual

  • Each entrepreneur faces unique circumstances.

  • Local knowledge and context matter more than abstract models.

  • Decisions must be rooted in specific environments and times.

11. Entrepreneurship as a Human Function

  • Human imagination and judgment are irreplaceable in uncertainty.

  • Machines or models cannot substitute entrepreneurial vision.

  • Empathy and creativity remain at the core of entrepreneurial action..

12. The Role of Resilience in Value Creation

  • Resilient entrepreneurs see uncertainty as opportunity.

  • Iteration and adaptability allow businesses to endure.

  • Long-term value comes from navigating—not escaping—uncertainty.

  • If an action fails or a barrier gets in the way, always know the next best choice of action – and take it.

112 Peter Klein: When Policy-Makers Discover The Benefits of Entrepreneurship, They Can’t Resist Intervening

Innovative entrepreneurship is the segment of the entrepreneurial economy that is especially highly focused on innovation via new products and services. Within innovative entrepreneurship there is an even brighter spotlight on NTBF — new technology-based firms that are cutting edge, scalable, and fast-growing. They represent only one form of entrepreneurship, but one that is very interesting. Indeed, they attract the interest of government and government policy-makers. A recent special issue of the Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal, a top journal for which our friend Peter Klein sits on the editorial board, examined the impact of policy on entrepreneurship itself and on the institutional and social challenges of these policy interventions.

Key Takeaways & Actionable Insights

Government policy-makers take an interest in innovative entrepreneurship when they are trying to grab some credit for economic growth and improved goods and services.

Both micro policies and macro policies aim at stimulating successful entrepreneurial and innovative outcomes. Policies to encourage the growth of green energy supplies, for example, are a micro policy; they apply only to firms engaged in particular activities. Changing bankruptcy laws (so that the reallocation of assets can proceed faster and more smoothly) or an educational initiative to support entrepreneurship teaching in school would be classified as macro policies: trying to create a new set of conditions that apply to all firms, all entrepreneurs, all technologies.

Government doing nothing to intervene is another — highly desirable — kind of macro policy: maintaining a social order in which entrepreneurs can operate with the least uncertainty about the future regulatory environment.

At minimum, government interventions in favor of entrepreneurship fail to properly consider trade-offs.

Analysis of policy starts from trade-offs. Every policy has trade-offs. Economists are the ones to point this out. Politicians just want one button to push to achieve one specific goal. All that is needed, they presume, is a piece of legislation that provides a tax break or a subsidy to the firms they want to succeed. But there are always trade offs. Directing funds or capital to one group of firms diverts it from another group. The consequences are unknown and can’t be known. What if the current crop of battery technologies, for example, do not include the one that will emerge as a more efficient alternative in the future? By subsidizing today’s technology do we constrain the emergence of a better one in the future?

Evidence suggests that neither macro policies nor micro policies are successful or effective.

One example of ineffective micro policy is intellectual property protection for selected technologies or firms. One of the papers in the Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal special edition looks at fast tracking patents for particular technology areas. One of the outcomes identified is the diversion of resources to overinvestment in legal protections and excess litigation with all its attendant economic costs.

Regulatory systems are another form of macro policy. An example is the number of days it takes to get the permits to open a new business. Reducing this would be a macro policy that could be effective. Peter Klein made the comparison between Singapore vs India on this variable, pointing out the correlation with greater speed of innovation in the former, encouraging new and unintended applications of technology.

But often, regulatory permissions favor well-funded and well-connected firms over the young and agile, and certification signals may not be completely accurate about underlying quality.

Micro interventions are targeted to boost outcomes by helping a particular firm or technology. Bureaucrats claim they can make better decisions than the market about resource allocation. They identify so-called “market failures” to be corrected (like fossil fuels causing pollution), and market decisions that they believe should be over-ridden. They don’t want to let consumers buy the gas-powered SUVs they prefer.

There’s no reason to believe these policy makers will get their decisions right. They certainly don’t have the incentives to do so, since they are not governed by profit and loss. They can easily pick the wrong projects.

Some interventions may be dismissed as irrelevant, but they may still produce distortions.

The papers in the Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal special edition point out that many of the cash payments / subsidies / tax breaks are given to firms that would have launched any way and been successful anyway. One paper (not in this collection, but cited by Professor Klein) found that the major effect of research grants in STEM is to increase the salaries of scientists rather than encourage scientific experiments that wouldn’t otherwise take place. The result is not better science, but a better life for scientists (that is, those who know how to win grants).

The private sector can stimulate basic science and government subsidies are not needed. For example, pharma companies encourage basic research at private companies via the incentives they provide via M&A strategy — an exit plan from the lab for basic science. In general, firms trying to develop new products and services for the market do a lot of the scientific discovery in the early stages of production. The government is not needed.

When government does provide venture capital (more frequently in Europe and Southeast Asia than in the US), the researchers reporting in this journal edition identified the receipt of such funds as mostly a marketing signal, enabling firms to enroll bigger partners, or get a prestigious underwriter for their IPO as a consequence of the positive imagery derived from being a subsidy winner.

Non-policy is a more promising and potentially more effective approach to encouraging entrepreneurship.

Culture is an example of non-policy. A culture that encourages experimentation and creativity, and assigns a low level of stigma to boldness whatever the result, is likely to attract more investment and accumulate more capital than a culture of more traditional norms favoring continuity. Cultural evolution like this is less likely to occur in a system where the state directs investment and chooses industries and sectors for support. One outcome is a negative view of business when business success is determined by getting close to government: in those cases, individuals tend to think badly of all business, including entrepreneurial businesses.

The verdict: maintain a healthy skepticism about the case for interventions to support entrepreneurship.

Overall, the evidence is not in favor of either macro-interventions or micro-interventions to stimulate innovative entrepreneurship. How should the individual entrepreneur think? It may be an ethical issue: whether or not to accept government subsidies or support. Nevertheless, the entrepreneur must make the best use of available knowledge, which includes knowledge of the regulatory regime. One of the papers in the collection finds that entrepreneurial businesses can make better connections with the right kinds of capital and partners as a result of government involvement. At some level, this kind of knowledge is a defensive mechanism for the real world.

And at least the regulators and policy makers are recognizing entrepreneurship as a positive force for growth and for good.

Additional Resources

“Effects of Institutions and Policies on Entrepreneurship” (PDF): Download PDF

Read the management summary of the Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal special edition (PDF): Download Paper

The Austrian Business Model (video): https://e4epod.com/model

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