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Organizing for emergence.

One of the most seductive assumptions in business is cause and effect. If we take action X (e.g. cut costs, or launch a new product) outcome Y (e.g. profit or market share) will be the result. This linear cause-and-effect mental model gives rise to another set of models, including strategic planning, budgeting and resource allocation. It has also been the source of the structural form of the firm: hierarchical layers of authority designed for executive management to implement cause-and-effect execution.

Overcoming the fallacy of causal control

But the world doesn’t bend to such simplicity. This mental model is wrong.

Markets and customer preferences shift unpredictably, employee behavior defies management mandates, competitors rewrite the rules of the market, and technology evolves in unanticipated directions. Yet, the residual faith in management control leaves firms rigid and reactive in adhering to the cause-and-effect illusion despite the radical change going on all around them. They need to accept and embrace the world of emergence. The free interaction of individuals with each other and with multiple system components in subjectively specified contexts morph spontaneously into new patterns of outcomes that could never be predicted. The cause-and-effect model simply does not apply.

Complex adaptive systems: reframing the firm

Happily, we have new mental models available to us through the science of complex adaptive systems. A complex adaptive system is an open dynamic network of relationships and interactions between component parts (such as individuals and teams in a firm), and all the artifacts they use (such as computers and spreadsheets and machine tools and money) and the context in which they are embedded (defined by markets and service providers and partners and regulations and customers). A firm is a complex system, incorporating a set of sub-systems, and embedded in a larger ecosystem with multi-dimensional interactions at every level. There’s no linear cause-and-effect at work, and the system can’t be managed. It evolves in ways over which there is no control to be had.

As a consequence of this new understanding, the lens through which we view the firm must change from causes to context.  The firm is a dynamic and ever-changing kaleidoscope of relational patterns to be monitored but not managed. It’s not possible to control outputs through top-down directives or planned actions. We need another goal for organization. That goal is coherence: a constellation of concepts, values, perceptions and practices shared by a community that gives it a wholeness in the form of a particular pattern of relationships and is the basis for the way the community self-organizes.

Constraints: shaping coherence.

What are the organizational tools to shape coherence? They’re tools of design called constraints – soft touch tools such as cultural norms, values, conditions, and shared purpose. In the old paradigm, constraints were obstacles to remove, like bottlenecks on the production line. In the new paradigm, constraints provide a new cohesive living order, subtly aligning individual actions without explicit commands.

Constraints shape the possibility space for firms. They are conditions that limit some possibilities and enable others, actively reshaping the possibility space that’s open for the organization. They’re not causes that dictate outcomes, but they channel energy and behavior. A constraint such as a cultural and operational focus on customer service, for example, can nudge the organization towards a coherent engagement with evolving market needs. Constraints are intentionally designed to amplify desired patterns – like innovation or agility – while dampening dysfunction and dissent. 

Context is king.

Constraints can’t shape a system’s coherence in a vacuum. All systems are embedded in larger systems, and these affect what’s possible in the sub-system. They provide the context that is the ultimate shaper. Context includes industry and economic trends, competitor actions and patterns, societal shifts, cultural norms, technology trends, the talent and educational ecosystem and many more elements, all shifting and moving unpredictably. Coherence can’t survive a misreading of context, while an accurate and adaptive reading can point to opportunities to amplify some constraints and loosen others.

The two flavors of constraints

In context, constraints come in two broad types, each with distinct roles in organizational design.

Context-Insensitive Constraints: These are universal guardrails, unshaken by external conditions. For firms, they include the imperative to generate profit, compliance with legal and regulatory frameworks, adherence to accounting standards, and even basic operational necessities (e.g., maintaining cash flow). They’re the bedrock of stability, ensuring survival across contexts. But over-reliance on them breeds rigidity—profit-maximizing thinking can stifle long-term innovation.

Context-Sensitive Constraints:
These are dynamic, weaving coherence by linking actions to their environment. Experiments can generate a results matrix of what works and what doesn’t, narrowing the range of investment into a targeted sphere. A firm’s customer feedback loops can constrain product development to align with market needs, creating mutual dependence between teams and clients. Enabling constraints (e.g., cross-functional collaboration norms and external partnerships) spark coordination networks, amplifying energy flow—think of a sales team energized by real-time data from R&D. Constitutive constraints (e.g., a shared purpose and mission) define the firm’s identity, while governing constraints (e.g., cultural values) steer from above, like Adam Smith’s invisible hand. Together, they generate emergent behaviors—new strategies or products—without rigid structures.

Catalysts and Loops: The Engines of Coherence 

Constraints don’t just sit still—they iterate. Economic catalysts (e.g., a new technology) and feedback loops (e.g., customer reviews driving product tweaks) self-organize, creating self-governing systems that persist through repetition. Values play a starring role here: a commitment to sustainability, for instance, constrains decisions across a firm, from sourcing to marketing, forging a coherent identity. These loops amplify energy, turning individual efforts into collective momentum. For leaders, the lesson is clear: nurture feedback-rich constraints to sustain alignment.

Persistence: The Art of Enduring Coherence

Coherence is a patterned wholeness shaped by shared values, perceptions and norms. Coherent firms thrive for decades, not through static stability but “dynamic kinetic stability”—mutual dependencies held together by constraints. A firm’s processes, relationships, and culture store information, enabling coherence even as people come and go. Constraints align individual energy streams into relational states, freeing energy for innovation. Think of a retailer whose customer-centric ethos persists through staff turnover, emerging as a competitive edge. Persistence favors firms that balance stability and adaptability.

Maintaining Flow.

Constraints can calcify. Sedimented norms—think “we’ve always done it this way”—and entrenched practices (e.g., legacy tech systems) limit adaptability. Path dependence weighs heavily: a firm’s early focus on a specific market can bias future moves, blinding it to new opportunities. Firms must spot these traps, relaxing outdated constraints to keep the possibility space open.

Keeping Constraints Agile

Too many constraints—or the wrong ones—threaten coherence. As contexts shift (e.g., digital disruption), governing constraints can lag, stifling response. Successful firms reconfigure their constraint regimes, using scaffolds (e.g., agile frameworks) and templates (e.g., decision protocols) that preset possibilities yet adjust over time. Evolution preserves the firm’s identity and unity while embracing change. Consider how Netflix pivoted from DVDs to streaming, retaining its customer-focus constraint while shedding operational relics.

From Chaos to Order: Many-to-One Dynamics 

Coherence emerges when disparate actions (“many”) harmonize into streamlined patterns (“one”). Social norms, trust, and networks within a firm reduce friction, aligning efforts toward shared goals. A sales team’s varied tactics, constrained by a unified value proposition, coalesce into a coherent market presence. This many-to-one shift isn’t forced—it’s sculpted by constraints, yielding qualitatively distinct outcomes like brand loyalty or operational efficiency. These are flow states in the context of the KFSO.

Beyond Hierarchy

Forget rigid pyramids. Firms thrive as interdependent dynamic wholes where autonomous teams are nested within larger systems. No single unit or level dominates. A firm’s culture constrains behavior top-down, yet without coercion; a project team self-organizes bottom-up, guided by shared norms. Adjusting constraints—tightening collaboration rules or relaxing approval layers—reconfigures the possibility space, unlocking emergent qualities like resilience or speed. This isn’t anarchy—it’s coherence that doesn’t require control.

Conclusion: Designing for Emergence

Traditional organizational design seeks to eliminate uncertainty. Designing for emergence flips the script: uncertainty is the valued raw material of innovation, shaped by constraints into coherent action. Leaders must become sculptors, crafting regimes that balance context-insensitive stability (profit, compliance) with context-sensitive dynamism (culture, feedback). The result? Firms that don’t just survive but evolve—persistent, adaptive, and whole. In a world where context changes everything, constraints are the key to unlocking what’s possible.

The New Economics: Harnessing Complex Adaptive Systems for Business Growth

The new science of complex adaptive systems in economics has transformative potential for business. This new science reveals how competitive entrepreneurial exploration of new technologies, products, and services can drive continuous economic growth. Think of it as a new law of economics, centered on the roles of value and selection in evolving entrepreneurial systems.

Traditional economics has struggled to identify unifying laws. However, the science of complex evolving systems provides a fresh perspective. An evolving system comprises many interacting components that increase in diversity, distribution, and patterned behavior over time. This seems to contradict the second law of thermodynamics, which states that natural phenomena become increasingly disordered over time.

A New General Law of Economics

By applying the principles of complex evolving systems, we can identify a new general law of economics: the emergence of new economic value over time, driven by competitive entrepreneurial discovery.

Characteristics of Evolving Systems in Economics

Analyzing the economy as a complex evolving system reveals three key attributes:

  1. Resource Configurations: There are countless ways to combine resources and inputs into new configurations.
  2. Discovery Processes: These processes generate new configurations.
  3. Selection: Certain configurations persist due to their value.

Increased order in such a system results from selection: some configurations have advantages that make them more likely to endure. Similarly, the economic system evolves through the selection of advantageous configurations.

The Economic System as an Evolving System

In economics, new configurations emerge from the diverse resources and capital structures. Entrepreneurship drives the discovery process by experimenting with new combinations. The end-user market then selects for value, ensuring that only the best configurations survive.

Therefore, the three characteristics of evolving systems—component diversity, configurational exploration, and selection—are fully demonstrated in the economic system and underpin the law of increasing value. This law can be generalized: economic systems with many interacting agents display an increase in diversity, distribution, and patterned behavior when numerous entrepreneurially generated configurations are subjected to value selection pressure. Value is the universal basis for selection in economic systems.

Three Orders of Value Selection

  1. Foundational Value: Configurations evolve to a point where they can self-maintain, with no need for reorganization or recombination. This value is associated with reliability, repeatability, trust, reputation, and ethics.
  2. Adaptive Value: Entrepreneurship drives knowledge building and information processing, supporting the creation of new configurations. Economic entities adapt dynamically to market changes, leading to growth, innovation, and competitiveness.
  3. Evolutionary Value: In complex systems, entirely new functions can be imagined and created, opening up new possibility spaces. This value is associated with the ability to invent new functions continuously.

Selection as the Key to Evolution

Selection is the primary enabling constraint in this model. A system will evolve, or increase value creation, if many different configurations are subjected to selection for value. For this to occur, markets must be free to select, entrepreneurs must be free to innovate, and selection pressures must be allowed to intensify.

Underlying Principles

  • Information Richness: Greater and faster flows of knowledge and data can open new possibility spaces for value creation.
  • Selection Pressure: The competitiveness of the market system is crucial for driving value creation.
  • Potential to Evolve: Systems vary in their potential to evolve. Increasing current value can enhance future value potential.
  • Rate of Change: The evolution rate can be influenced by increasing the number and diversity of interacting agents, the number of different system configurations, and the selective pressure on the system.
  • Interdependence: Evolving systems are overlapping and interdependent. Information transfers within these systems create an “information field.”
  • Value Selection: Systems that select based on Foundational, Adaptive, and Evolutionary Value will see increased value creation.

Understanding and applying these principles can help young professionals navigate the complexities of modern business economics and drive continuous growth and innovation.

Complex Adaptive Systems: The Daoism Of Western Science.

Western science, like all of our institutions, thrives on novelty. New theories and new sciences abound: quantum physics, computer science, network science, string theory. The lines of inquiry are always extending beyond yesterday’s boundaries.

One recently developed science is complexity and complex systems. In a reversal of the traditional reductionism in science – which looks for explanations at ever smaller micro-scales, from molecules, to atoms, and now to hadrons and quarks – complex adaptive systems theory looks at the world holistically as systems, including systems embedded in systems embedded in systems, and asks how they perform at the system level. The economy is a system, society is a system, a firm is a system, a city is a system, a brain is a system, and so on. A system can be contrasted with a collection of objects that are disconnected, like a bag of marbles or nails.

There’s a particular focus on Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS): a class of systems found in many fields such as economics, biology, and social sciences, characterized by a collection of individual agents acting independently and constantly reacting to what the other independent agents are doing. These agents interact locally with each other at the micro level in unpredictable ways, and through these interactions, system-level structures and patterns emerge without central control. 

The concept of emergence is key: unpredictable outcomes occur, without any traceable cause-and-effect links. The scientists’ favorite word in this context is non-linear. Their treasured linear equations are of no use in predicting future outcomes in a complex adaptive system. That means, for example, that the policies politicians and bureaucrats prescribe to fix what they perceive as economic and social problems are useless when viewed through the lens of efficacy, and damaging when viewed through the lens of the independent agents – people – interacting within the system. Their freedom of interaction, the essence of the system, becomes impeded by policy.

Complex Adaptive Systems open up another cause-and-effect problem in business. How can we celebrate the great achievement of hero CEO’s if outcomes emerge, rather than tracing back causally to the decisions and actions of the great business leader?

How do we deal philosophically with the idea that outcomes emerge, without any traceable cause? That’s anathema to Western science. Perhaps Eastern philosophy offers a better approach. In Daoism, the Dao is The Way. The focus is not so much on the outcome, more on the way or the path. There is no outcome, only constant change. The images of Daoism include water and river imagery: the river flows over boulders and pebbles, between mountains and banks, bends left and right, and becomes bigger and bigger, and never stops. Heraclitus famously said that a person never steps in the same river twice, because each time, the person has changed and the river has changed. Change is the essence of existence. The way is universal, we follow it – go with the flow.

Complex adaptive systems that constantly adapt to the changing environment and to the interactions of independent agents are said to be self-organizing. They follow The Way, as the way emerges. They exhibit dynamic change, never stepping into the same river twice. The appropriate observation point is holism rather than reductionism – interconnected Eastern thinking rather than analytic Western thinking.

The pursuit of the Dao – the Way – entails harmonizing with this process rather than controlling it. Embracing harmony is key for adjusting our philosophy. Thus, in CAS parlance, the trade-offs between different levels and agents within a system would need to be inclusive rather than controlling, for the classical concept of harmony is one in which diverse interests prevail in a dynamic balance. Harmony is understood as the ‘unity of any nonidentical objects’, which in their diversity allow for ‘the possibility of new things arising’. Translated into CAS, harmony is inclusive of discord but not overtaken by it. If discord does overtake the system, dynamic harmony loses its integrative quality and breaks up into chaos; alternatively, when it is stifled by uniformity, harmony ceases to exist.

Seen through the lens of business, CAS and The Dao require changes in standard business thinking. Control and prediction have been the twin pursuits of business management. But harmony results from balance, not control. Pursuing innovation in a linear fashion through R&D investment in projects can exclude “the possibility of new things arising” in an emergent way, because it uses reason and analytics to favor some investments and excludes others. Emergence is not even contemplated.

Western science and business management tend to prefer the identification of causal change – or that which we can attempt to control and seek to predict. The new science of complexity is less mechanistic than the standard model, and closer to Daoist intuitive thought. Complex Adaptive Systems, in its nonlinear treatment of change, provides a bridge between East and West, an integrative perspective.