203. Angie Morgan Witkowski: How To Win With Risk

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The concept of risk provides us with an excellent opportunity to bridge between formal economic theory and personal business experience. Economics provides us with rigorous understanding of risk and uncertainty and the distinctions between them and their various types. But risk — the word that we use in everyday conversation — bring with it subjective feelings that affect how we approach it.

Knowledge Capsule

It’s appropriate for entrepreneurs to reframe the concept of risk so that they can embrace it wholeheartedly.

Risk has traditionally been framed as the downside of a choice. It’s the potential negative outcome for anything we try. But we just have to look at our own lives to see that a lot of risks we’ve taken have generated upside, whether that’s choosing a college, getting married, or taking a particular job. If we feel good about the outcome, then risk is a path to reward.

Part of the reframing of risk is to see it as a process rather than a single choice.

Risk can sound like it comes at us as a single choice, or an event, or a once-and-for-all decision. It’s much better to think of risk as a process — a behavioral process rather than a decision-making threshold. The risk process is one of experimentation —taking small steps, trying different things, getting feedback from the market, making adjustments, then trying some more things.

Instead of “starting a business”, we can think of setting out on the pathway to entrepreneurship. Instead of “committing to a future new product launch”, we can think initiating an exploration with low resource commitment until we have better feedback knowledge in order to take the next step and commit more resources. We can think of a new initiative as an experience gap that we look to fill with knowledge from experts and experience from mentors or advisors who’ve done something similar.

The key to this reframed risk process is a courageous commitment to perpetual learning.

Through learning, we can all redefine our understanding of risk and re-establish our relationship with it. A part of risk is the ego-bruising realization that we don’t know everything and can therefore make mistakes, or take actions that have unintended consequences.

By embracing learning, we establish a social reward for not knowing — learning is viewed positively, as a reward. Developing new knowledge is one of the primary roles of the entrepreneur. While it may take intellectual courage to own up to not knowing, the courage is rewarded with new understanding and new advantages. There’s always opportunity to learn more.

Imagination is an antidote to risk.

Imagination can overcome risk. We all have the capability of imagining future achievements — “future wins”, as Angie Morgan Witkowski put it. Imagination can be an exercise in creativity, and it’s OK to let it run wild, releasing our minds from the restraints that risk can impose. Taking the time for free-thinking can be very beneficial.

The pathway to the imagined future is to marry possibility with probability. In our exercise in imagination, it’s easy to eliminate the impossible. But we shouldn’t limit the possible. We can start from the imagined possible future and then work back through probabilities about whether we can accomplish it. Angie stimulated her business imagination vi a sidewalk margarita bar in Florida and ultimately opened a successful coffee shop in Traverse City, Michigan. It was a process of working backwards from what was possible to what was more probably, given her circumstances.

Similarly, her consulting business started by imagining writing a book about a better style of leadership than is taught in business school. She contacted literary agents, who encouraged her not only to write the book but to also start a speaking business. The audience for her speaking engagements sought consulting help, and she developed a series of workshops as part of the delivery system. Her consulting business is now cross-industry, from startups to the oil-and-gas majors, and worldwide. It started with imagination.

Imagination is complemented by hard work and realistic capacity assessment.

It would be wrong to think that the reframing of risk to action and perpetual learning comes additional without costs. Angie mentioned two. One is hard work. All learning pathways must be undertaken with the commitment to working as hard as it takes to advance. It requires time, effort, and continuous review. The intellectual courage that Angie highlighted is hard work in itself — the cognitive work of thinking about how to think, exercising cognitive discipline, exploring flexible options such as design thinking, that require the effort of looking at problems from many different perspectives.

The second cost Angie mentioned is the honest assessment of our capacity. We can imagine future wins and assess the probability of achieving them, but we must be honest about our capacity. Do we have the resources, do we have the skills, can we assemble the right team, are we willing to undertake the hard work?

Putting hard work and capacity together means we don’t risk an inadequate attempt to solve the target problem. As Angie put it, using Marines language, don’t be “half-assed”.

Action is more important than planning.

Angie’s prescription in her book, Bet On You, is for one-third of time to be allocated to planning and two-thirds making things happen. The make-things-happen part is what generates the feedback loop and learning that is so important. Here are Economics For Business, we’d probably relegate planning to 10% or less of resource allocation, but the point is the same. Action is the more important.

There is one aspect of planning that can deliver extra value, and that’s planning for failure, or contingency planning. Our imagination should be partially applied to imagining what could go wrong. How would the contingency transpire? What would we do next if it did? We should prepare for resilience in the aftermath of a setback.

A plan, in Angie’s words (which, in turn, come from the Marines), is a reference point for change.

Ultimately, risk must feel good.

If the antidote to the downside of risk is imagining future wins, then we can also benefit from a focus on the wins we experience every day. Choose the path that feels good both tomorrow and today, and that makes all efforts worthwhile.

Additional Resources

Bet On You: How To Win With Risk by Angie Morgan and Courtney Lynch: Mises.org/E4B_203_Book

Bet On You Podcast: Mises.org/E4B_203_Podcast

Angie Morgan Witkowski on LinkedIn: Mises.org/E4B_203_LinkedIn

No businesses are “small”. They’re all productive nodes in a tightly connected knowledge-building value-creating network.

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There are roughly 32 million businesses in the US, of which 99.9% are what the government calls “small”. This classification of business accounts for about half of GDP and of total employment (making it just as productive as “big business”), and usually more than half of new job creation (making it more dynamic than big business). It’s often where innovation first enters the market, since small business is more open to risk taking than big business. If we remove the Fortune 500 and the Russell 5000, we’ve still got 32 million, rounded up, so let’s think of them as a community.

Within the 32 million, there is a wide range of size, whether measured by revenue or number of employees. The government in the form of the SBA (Small Business Administration) uses a range of up to 500 employees and a revenue of $7 million per year. But they also relax this range in different classification categories; their “small” financial and insurance business range goes up to 1,500 employees and $38.5 million in revenues. Clearly, there’s no consistency or integrity in their definitions, and not much useful information.

A better way to look at these businesses is as an integrated network of productivity, information flow, knowledge-building, innovation and value creation. 

Productivity:

Dr. Samuel Gregg in his book The Next American Economy identifies the decline in the formation of new entrepreneurial businesses as responsible for the significant decline in American productivity. These businesses have an intensified motivation to be productive; it’s hard to get capital, so they need to make the most of what they’ve got and find agile ways to borrow, rent or originate capital. They can’t afford productivity-sapping bureaucracy. They find ways to accelerate cash flows. They adopt new technological innovations quickly so as to take advantage of productivity enhancements. Productivity is essential for them.

Knowledge-building:

Bartley J. Madden in his book Value Creation Principles, identifies knowledge-building proficiency as the fundamental driver of firm performance. In the integrated 32-million strong network of businesses we are analyzing, information flows faster and more freely as a result of more network nodes, more connections between nodes, and lack of barriers to learning such as bureaucracy. These businesses know they must learn at speed, apply their learning fast and use it to serve customers better. There’s no learning time to lose.

Dynamic Efficiency:

Efficiency is an economic concept that hasn’t been very helpful for business in general. It tends to mean doing less with less: cutting costs, saving on inputs, not risking innovation, not attempting experiments with uncertain outcomes. But economist Jesus Huerta de Soto developed the contrasting concept of dynamic efficiency: fast adaptation to changing customer preferences, and rapid creation and adoption of new market knowledge, with an economy of time and agile decision-making.  This is the entrepreneurial method, and the way that the 32 million competes effectively with larger, better resourced but less agile firms.

Pure value creation:

Businesses generate cash flow as a result of the valuable customer experiences they enable. The value that customers perceive turns into willingness to pay, resulting in cash flow that is the life blood of small businesses who have less access to credit and debt to fund their working capital needs. The 32 million are acutely sensitive to cash flow, and therefore to customer value. They remove all obstacles to customer value, including bureaucracy, complicated service arrangements that obscure value visibility and take time, and any other obstructions they can identify. These businesses know that they must pursue pure value creation.

Customer focus:

The disciplines of dynamic efficiency and pure value creation demand an intense customer focus. The 32 million choose their customers carefully, develop a deep knowledge of them and their needs, nurture empathy to get on the same wavelength with customers regarding those needs, and are constantly listening for feedback and adjusting to any new signals that come through the feedback channel. This intensity of customer focus sustains the innovation and elevated quality of service that, in turn, secures continuity and strengthening of business relationships. That’s why these businesses are the backbone of the economy.

Unentangled with government:

The greatest barrier to all business-driven economic growth, progress and innovation is government. Both taxation and regulation are business-killers by intent. Big business becomes entangled with government. They develop big bureaucracies to comply with regulation, keeping them close to government and saddling the 32 million with disproportionate compliance costs if they’re forced to match big-business compliance practices. And big businesses assemble lobbying forces and budgets to design, write and pay for government approval for regulations that protect them and over-burden others. It’s this entanglement with government that condemns big business to permanent inefficiency, and also results in the kind of government-directed surveillance scandals that are currently being uncovered.

The 32 million is in no way small. It’s the vital, leading edge group that brings innovation, growth, development and dynamism to the economy. Let’s find another term than “small business”.

202. Murray Sabrin: Financing Health Care

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Entrepreneurial business solutions can lead to better outcomes in every economic endeavor. In the field of medical care, entrepreneurship has been hampered by non-market arrangements. There’s some sense of an emerging trend towards better choices for users, a trend that we discuss with economist Dr. Murray Sabrin.

Knowledge Capsule

All systems evolve. The current system of medical care uncoupled from private markets evolved in ways that result in higher costs and poorer outcomes.

Our economy — and the economic experience of all of us as individuals — would be improved (i.e., greater customer value would be experienced) if we could lighten the burdensome weight of government regulation and its consequent effects on the system of medical care and medical insurance.

Our homeowners insurance, our automobile insurance and our life insurance are market products that give us the experience of seeking information and making informed choices based on pricing and perceived benefits. Medical insurance has evolved differently — it’s tied to work and puts us in a medical system where prices and choices are opaque and highly constrained. The associated costs are a great burden on the economy, and they result in diversions of productive investment from better uses.

The evolution of employment-linked healthcare began in dangerous industries like forestry logging, when employers introduced on—site medical care to treat on-the-job accidents — employers understood the mutual benefit of a healthy workforce. During and after World War II, the incentives for employers shifted: wage controls prevented them from attracting workers with higher pay, and so they introduced the benefit of tax-free healthcare benefits. An industry linking employment and medical care grew by leaps and bounds.

Today, both employers and employees are beginning to understand the drawbacks of the evolved system.

In the evolved medical care system today, employees feel constrained because they can’t freely choose their doctors and service providers, and healthcare treatments they might want are often made unavailable to them. They’re not made aware of pricing, and therefore unable to make informed choices.

Employers are beginning to understand the high costs for traditional indemnity insurance, and many of them are seeking alternatives. Dr. Sabrin listed a number of these emerging innovations.

1. Employer self-insurance.

Instead of incurring the heavy cost of insuring via the conglomerates like Blue Cross Blue Shield, Humana, Aetna, United Healthcare and others, many employers are shifting to self-insurance, hiring an independent third-party administrator to set premiums for normal expenses, and utilizing re-insurance against the cost of catastrophic medical events.

2. Medical savings accounts.

Financial innovation has opened the possibility of utilizing current savings for future medical expenses, ideally deposited tax free, appreciating tax free and withdrawn tax free (although, inevitably, there are government restrictions). It’s another component in the free-market medicine revolution.

3. Medical cost sharing.

Some affinity groups take the route of medical cost sharing — groups pooling funds to pay individual medical costs. Some of these groups may create membership lifestyle qualifications — non-drinkers, non-smokers, etc. — to link healthy behaviors to lower medical care costs.

5. Wellness rather than healthcare.

The realization is dawning that medical care costs are inflated by unhealthy lifestyles. Employers and employees share a mutual interest in a healthier workplace and healthier workforce. Better alignment of incentives could encourage healthier eating and drinking habits, greater levels of exercise, and generally more health-conscious behavior. The feeling of entitlement to healthcare that can result in a lowered drive to stay healthy is a moral hazard that has been induced by the current medical care system. Reducing medical care costs via a healthier workforce is a win-win for employee and employer alike.

Restoring the doctor-patient relationship via Direct Primary Care.

The primary care doctor who has a knowing and caring relationship with individual patients, and who knows their ailments and their lifestyle, and their family and economic circumstances, is a historical tradition in American life, a part of the American dream. The corporate medical care system took this relationship away in many ways, replacing it with an impersonal system of “in-network” availability of physicians with no personal relationship component.

Direct Primary Care is restoring the doctor-patient relationship following principles of entrepreneurial business design. A doctor contracts with a small number of patients — few enough to ensure availability and access — who pay a subscription fee, sufficient to provide cash flow for the doctor’s office and immediate support functions. The doctor constructs a personally curated set of network connections to specialists, such as cardiologists or urologists, and to services such as imaging and lab analysis, so that patients can be directly connected with pre-selected and approved providers for specialist needs.

Direct Primary Care can eliminate or circumnavigate much of the bureaucracy, paperwork, and creativity-stifling sclerosis of current day corporate medical care systems.

6. Pricing transparency.

A parallel innovation to DPC is demonstrated in transparent pricing clinics and surgeries, the clearest example being provided by Surgery Center Of Oklahoma (SCOO) which famously provides an open price list for commonplace surgeries, with no surprise surcharges or hidden fees. These prices are often much, much lower than would be charged for the same service by corporate hospitals; the quality is often higher; the speed of getting an appointment is faster; and the most important trait is that the pricing is transparent to the end-user. Patients become consumers in the traditional sense of the word — able to make a free choice based on open pricing information.

7. Better self-monitoring.

How’s your health? You may not have sufficient information for a good answer – the medical care system often makes information hard to access. One improvement is the self-monitoring that is technologically enabled today. Your Apple watch, for example, can tell you a lot about your vital signs, as can apps+devices like Kardia or a simple scale.

Consumers may also be able to find a local DPC doctor or naturopath with whom to share the data for recommendations on natural solutions for any signals they might detect. This is a decentralized approach to healthcare that’s consistent with the general trend away from restrictive top-down centralized structures and processes.

Additional Resources

The Finance of Health Care: Wellness and Innovative Approaches to Employee Medical Insurance by Murray Sabrin: Mises.org/E4B_202_Book1

From Immigrant to Public Intellectual: An American Story by Murray Sabrin: Mises.org/E4B_202_Book2

MurraySabrin.com

MurraySabrin.Substack.com